Moisture Situation as of October 3, 2018
Monday, October 22, 2018
Ralph Wright, manager of the agro-meteorological applications and modelling section with Alberta Agriculture and Forestry (AF), analyzes the data and looks back at September.
“This September has been exceptionally cold, and for many lands west of Highway 2, unusually wet,” says Wright. “As of October 3, our weather was stuck in a stable blocking pattern, drawing cold arctic air into Alberta. Unseasonably cool weather is expected to persist for at least the week of October 7. Beyond that, some forecast models are showing a warming trend while others are not. Suffice it to say, weather forecasts beyond five days are not consistently accurate, and it is not unusual to see abrupt shifts in weather patterns. Currently, the long range forecasts are mixed with some pointing to a developing El Niño bringing a warmer than average winter and the Farmers’ Almanac predicting a colder than average winter - take your pick.”
Wright says that for those who are thinking this was the worst September in memory, it may be true depending on how good your memory is and where you are in the province. ”For Edmonton, this September ranks as the third coldest, looking back as far as 1961. The coldest was 1965, followed only eight years later in 1972 by the second coldest September. It has been more than 50 years since Edmonton has seen a September this cold. In both 1965 and 1972, the weather in October warmed significantly with several days above 15 C recorded in both years, followed by winter snow packs that were both above average.”